Election Day could not have gone much better. The president won a second term, carrying Virginia in the process; Gov. Kaine was elected to the Senate; Democrats made gains in the House and retained control of the Senate. Sure, we’re disappointed that Wayne Powell wasn’t able to boot Eric Cantor out of Congress, but we can take great pride in the fact that Wayne earned a very respectable 41.3 percent of the vote, better than any Democrat has been able to do in the recent past.
It’s no secret that we Democrats are outnumbered in Orange County, at least for the time being. But the election clearly demonstrated that our disadvantage isn’t as great as it sometimes seems. The president garnered better than 40 percent of the vote countywide.
Comparing the results to the election of 2008 is problematic, due to the redistricting that took place in the county in 2011. Current precincts do not coincide with precincts in the previous contest. Voters in Lake of the Woods were confined to two precincts four years ago, but now are distributed among three precincts — Four East (402), Five South (501) and Five North (502).
But in the interest of learning from this experience, it is useful to look at the president’s performance in Orange County this year and to weigh it against his performance in 2008.
The chart below shows the vote totals for President Obama and his opponents in Orange County in both elections.
| November 2008 | ||
| Candidates | Votes | Percentage |
| McCain-Palin | 8,506 | 53.83% |
| Obama-Biden | 7,107 | 44.97% |
| November 2012 | ||
| Candidates | Votes | Percentage |
| Romney-Ryan | 9,301 | 56.71% |
| Obama-Biden | 6,864 | 41.85% |
So, the president received 243 votes fewer in Orange County in 2012 than he did in 2008! This despite a months-long campaign by hundreds of dedicated volunteers that included registering hundreds of new voters, house-to-house canvassing, phone banks and get-out-the-vote efforts.
There may be any number of reasons for this — not the least of which is the perception of local voters on the state of the economy. The president’s efforts have produced a sound and steady but slow recovery from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Voters often tended to dwell on the “slow” part of the equation, but ignore the “sound and steady” part of it, demanding miracles instead of mere success.
As for voters in Lake of the Woods, the president’s opponent received a majority of votes in all three precincts: 57-43 percent in Four East (402), 60-39 percent in Five South (501) and 63-36 percent in Five North (502). In 2008 these precincts had different borders and names, but the McCain-Palin ticket won all three by similar or slightly narrower margins.
The raw data and unofficial precinct-by-precinct results can be found at the Virginia State Board of Elections Web site.
The takeaway from these data is that despite the imbalance between the parties in Orange County, there is a strong and vigorous Democratic base here.
Between now and the next election, Orange County Democrats can build on that base by advocating and demonstrating our sound social and political principles to our neighbors. We’ve always believed that every non-Democrat is just a Democrat who doesn’t know it yet. There’s still work to be done here in Orange County.
— Kerry Sipe